The weather is becoming more accurate. I do not think there is much doubt. With the introduction of increasingly sophisticated technology, both computer and satellite, whatever the weather professional may be safer than ever on its ability to predict – but only so far.
Thanks to the chaotic nature of our climate and atmosphere of a long-range forecast is still not something that is bet at home. Most forecasts are accurate to two or three days, but the percentages drop sharply.
As the global climate is that it makes sense that global cooperation is needed to help meteorologists. Most countries have some sort of National Weather Service with a mandate to make accurate predictions a few days earlier. However, measurements and projections observed in all counties provide a significant contribution to the worldwide network and allow more data is entered into computer models.
There are three major national powers are very much on the overall prognosis. In England there is the British Meteorological Office in the U.S. American National Meteorological Center and European ECMWF (European Centre for Weather Forecasts) is also in England. The focus on ECMWF forecasts of 1 to 10 days, covering 17 countries. This organization spends a lot of time collecting and analyzing data from around the world and is considered a leader in the medium-term prognosis.
There is also the WMO (World Meteorological Organization), which is an organization run by and on behalf of the United Nations with 170 member countries. This organization was founded in 1951 and is tasked with improving weather observations, which allows an optimal flow of information worldwide.
Observations and data for weather forecasts come from many different sources. About 13,000 land stations, ships, 7500, commercial aircraft and satellites are also all the data pouring in models of computers around the world which in turn churn out weather forecasts from a few minutes (tornadoes, for example) hundreds of years (global warming, for example).
So with all this information with all this hardware and software, and an incredible network of observations of the oceans, atmosphere and space is a forecast 7 days worth the paper it’s written? Well, maybe – is it all depends on where you are in the world. Some climates rarely change, such as the Sahara desert and a forecast of this area is very easy most of the time, with perhaps only a few adjustments of the high and low temperatures.
Other areas of the world, however, are much more changeable and unpredictable. British Isles, for example, being on the western edge of Europe, pointing the jet stream from the other side of the Atlantic and the Gulf Stream carrying warm air to our shores, is much more difficult to measure. A slight change in the direction of a depression of the Atlantic can have a marked effect on the local climate. The same is true of course, for cyclones and hurricanes and tornadoes and dust storms. And that to me is the great thing about the weather. It’s so unpredictable and chaotic. Yes, the forecasts are increasingly sophisticated and accurate, but will never be 100% accurate, and I would not have it any other way. So it’s a weather forecast 7 days worth the paper it’s written? Probably, but with so many exceptions that would not bet on it.